Recent poll suggests three parties in Parliament,
The Justice and Development Party (AK Party), the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will make it to Parliament after Sunday’s elections, according to a recent poll, plus approx 25 independents, including MPs who are close to the Kurdish Party the DTP.
The survey, conducted by the Genar Research and Consultancy Company, aimed to take the pulse of the people as the countdown begins to the big day.
According to the survey, conducted on 3,524 individuals over the age of 18 from 26 towns, the AK Party will get 39.8 percent of the vote, followed by the CHP at 21 percent and the MHP at 13.3 percent. The total percentage of the vote the independents will take is 7.7 percent, the survey suggested.
Some 12.6 percent said they were still undecided. A majority of respondents said the recent crisis in the presidential election — where Parliament overwhelmingly voted for the AK Party nominee in the first round only for it to be canceled by a somewhat dubious Constitutional Court decision — had worked in favor of the government party.
The findings of the poll showed that the number of votes on the left hadn’t increased overall. The pollsters said the polarization of society during the presidential election process had worked in favor of the CHP and the MHP as well. However, the report introducing the findings said the alliance of the Democratic Left Party (DSP) and the CHP had not really had a significant effect. “In light of all these evaluations, we can say that the CHP will remain the main opposition party,” it said.
The poll suggests that the MHP faces no risk of staying under the 10 percent threshold barrier as they did at the last general election.
Some 1.4 percent of respondents who said they would vote for the AK Party said they still had some reservations, followed by a 1.2 percent of such voters among CHP supporters and 2.1 percent for MHP supporters. Genar also calculated the possible seat situation in Parliament after the elections. The AK Party is expected to have at least 297 deputies, the CHP 125 and the MHP would have at least 75 deputies. There would be at least 25 independent deputies, the poll found.
The considerable sum of 80.1 percent of respondents said they would certainly vote in the elections, while only 6.2 percent said they were not going to vote.
First published in the Turkish daily newspaper Zaman.